[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86KKIRA4gXg]
Interest rates are at historic lows but cyclical trends suggest they will soon rise. Home buyers may never see such a chance again, writes Marc Roth By Marc Roth.
Well, you may not be stupid or broke. Maybe you already have a house and you don’t want to move. Or maybe you’re a Trappist monk and have forsworn all earthly possessions. Or whatever. But if you want to buy a house, now is the time, and if you don’t act soon, you will regret it. Here’s why: historically low interest rates.
As of today, the average 30-year fixed-rate loan with no points or fees is around 5%. That, as the graph above—which you can find on Mortgage-X.com—shows, is the lowest the rate has been in nearly 40 years.
In fact, rates are so well below historic averages that it should make all current and prospective homeowners take notice of this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. And it is exactly that, based on what the graph shows us. Let’s look at the point on the far left.
In 1970 the rate was approximately 7.25%. After hovering there for a couple of years, it began a trend upward, landing near 10% in late 1973. It settled at 8.5% to 9% from 1974 to the end of 1976. After the rise to 10%, that probably seemed O.K. to most home buyers. But they weren’t happy soon thereafter. From 1977 to 1981, a period of only 60 months, the 30-year fixed rate climbed to 18%. As I mentioned in one of my previous articles, my dad was one of those unluckily stuck needing a loan at that time.
Interest Rate Lessons
And when rates started to decline after that, they took a long time to recede to previous levels. They hit 9% for a brief time in 1986 and bounced around 10% to 11% until 1990. For the next 11 years through 2001, the rates slowly ebbed and flowed downward, ranging from 7% to 9%. We’ve since spent the last nine years, until very recently, at 6% to 7%. So you can see why 5% is so remarkable. So, what can we learn from the historical trends and numbers?
First, rates have far further to move upward than downward; for more than 30 years, 7% was the low and 18% the high. The norm was 9% in the 1970s, 10% in the mid-1980s through the early 1990s, 7% to 8% for much of the 1990s, and 6% only over the last handful of years.
Second, the last time the long-term trends reversed from low to high, it took more than 20 years (1970 to 1992) for the rate to get back to where it was, and 30 years to actually start trending below the 1970 low.
Finally, the most important lesson is to understand the actual financial impact the rate has on the cost of purchasing and paying off a home. Every quarter-point change in interest rates is equivalent to approximately $6,000 for every $100,000 borrowed over the course of a 30-year fixed. While different in each region, for the sake of simplicity, let’s assume that the average person is putting $40,000 down and borrowing $200,000 to pay the price of a typical home nationwide.
Thus, over the course of the life of the loan, each quarter-point move up in interest rates will cost that buyer $12,000. Loan Costs Stay with me now. We are at 5%. As you can see by the graph above, as the economy stabilizes, it is reasonable for us to see 30-year fixed rates climb to 6% within the foreseeable future and probably to a range of 7% to 8% when the economy is humming again. If every quarter of a point is worth $12,000 per $200,000 borrowed, then each point is worth almost $50,000.
Let’s put that into perspective. You have a good stable job (yes, unemployment is at 10%, but another way of looking at that figure is that most of us have good stable jobs). You would like to own a $240,000 home. However, even though home prices have steadied, you may be thinking you can get another $5,000 or $10,000 discount if you wait (never mind the $8,500 or $6,500 tax credit due to run out next spring). Or you may be waiting for the news to tell you the economy is “more stable” and it’s safe to get back in the pool. In exchange for what you may think is prudence, you will risk paying $50,000 more per point in interest rate changes between now and the time you decide you are ready to buy. And you are ignoring the fact that according to the Case-Shiller index, home prices in most regions have been trending back up for the last several months.
If you are someone who is looking to buy or upgrade in the $350,000-to-$800,000 home price range, and many people out there are, then you’re borrowing $300,000 to $600,000. At 7%, the $300,000 loan will cost just under $150,000 more over the lifetime, and the $600,000 loan an additional $300,000, if rates move up just 2% before you pull the trigger.
What I’m trying to impress upon everyone is that if you are planning on being a homeowner now and/or in the foreseeable future, or if you are looking to move your family into a bigger home, then pay more attention to the interest rates than the price of the home.
If you have a steady job, good credit, and the down payment, then you really are being offered the gift of a lifetime.
Source: Business Week
Passing through the Fort Myers, Fla., airport a few weeks ago, I noticed people eagerly signing up for a free bus tour of foreclosed real estate—with all properties offering water views. During the ride to my hotel, the young driver volunteered that he had just bought his first house, paying $65,000 for a foreclosed property in nearby Cape Coral that last sold for over $250,000. He said he had never expected to be able to buy anything on a driver’s salary, let alone something that nice.
Last week, Standard & Poor’s reported that its S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price index of real-estate values increased this past quarter over the first quarter of 2009, the first quarter-on-quarter increase in three years. Its index of 20 major cities also rose for the three months ended June 30 over the three months ended May 31, with only hard-hit Detroit and Las Vegas experiencing declines. The week before that, the National Association of Realtors reported that sales volume of existing homes was up 7.2% in July from June.
In short, the data suggest that real-estate prices hit a bottom some time during the second quarter, and have now begun to rise. There’s no way to be certain that this marks the end of the long, painful correction that followed the real-estate bubble, but clearly prices are no longer in free-fall. That means if you’ve been sitting on the fence, it’s time to act.
Ordinarily I’d never try to time the real-estate market, but I can understand why buyers have been cautious. Few want to buy in down markets, just as stock buyers avoid bear markets. And for most people, of course, buying a house is a much bigger decision than buying a stock. But with real-estate prices nationally now down about 30% from their 2006 peak and showing signs of turning up, the prices aren’t likely to go much lower. Every real-estate market is local, and so there may be a few exceptions. Overall, though, I can’t imagine a better time to buy than now.
In addition to bargain prices, buyers also should find plenty of homes to choose from. The inventory of unsold homes was 4.09 million units in July, up 7.3% from June, according to the National Association of Realtors. And mortgage rates this week were at a two-month low of close to 5%, according to Zillow. Even the stricter appraisal process is working to the advantage of buyers. Appraisals are coming in far lower than most sellers have been expecting, forcing them to face the new reality of sharply lower prices. And with stricter standards, lenders aren’t going to let buyers borrow more than they can afford, which protects buyers and helps to keep prices down.
Unless you’re really prepared to accept the demands (and headaches) of being a landlord, I don’t recommend direct ownership of real estate as an investment. The days of buyers lining up to flip Miami Beach and Las Vegas condos are mercifully gone.
There are much easier ways to make money in real estate, such as real-estate investment trusts or buying shares in home builders and other housing-related businesses (such as Home Depot). Historically, the mean rate of return on real estate has been around 3%, according to research from Yale economist Robert Shiller, who co-developed the Case-Shiller index. Shares in REITs and other stocks have often done much better.
But there’s a good reason homeownership has been such a central part of the American dream. It delivers security, pride of ownership, a sense of community and decent investment returns as a bonus. I felt glad for my driver in Florida. He represents the other side of the foreclosure crisis. For every hardship story, and no doubt there are many, others are realizing their dreams of home ownership and getting what may well turn out to be the deals of their lives.
Regulation Z of The Truth in Lending Act (TILA) has undergone important changes that you need to know about when talking to your clients. These changes take effect for all new applications taken on July 30, 2009 and after, apply to ALL types of mortgage loans in ALL 50 states plus the District of Columbia, and could impact the overall timeline of the mortgage loan origination process.
Here are the four key parts of the new regulation you need to know:
Potential first-time buyers have yet another reason to consider purchasing a home: the monetization of the tax credit.
Here are four ways you can get access to those funds for upfront costs.
Short-term bridge loans are now available from a variety of lenders so that buyers can tap the benefits of the $8,000 Federal Housing Tax Credit for First-Time Home Buyers upfront. If you are eligible for the tax credit, these bridge loans will enable you to use the money for your down payment and closing costs with the credit as collateral. You will have to pay the money back after they’ve filed their tax return and received a refund.
There are essentially four sources for this type of financing, and their terms can vary considerably.
1. State HFA Bridge Loans
As of early June 2009, 10 state Housing Finance Agencies offered tax-credit bridge loans, and more were planning to do so. Although each state HFA loan differs, here are some typical characteristics:
Since the bridge loans are made in tandem with your HFA’s financing products, you apply for the loans when you apply with the HFA-approved lender for your mortgage financing. You should be able to find a list of approved lenders on the HFA’s Web site.
2. Local Government or Nonprofit Loans
If your state HFA doesn’t offer the loans, you can ask an HFA staff person to direct you to local nonprofits or state or local government agencies that do. If that person can’t help you, a good place to start a search is with a national nonprofit group called NeighborWorks, which maintains a list of more than 200 local affiliates that provide housing assistance. The loan programs for each of these affiliates differ, so you will need to check with them on their underwriting standards and loan terms—and even on whether they make bridge loans repayable with the tax credit.
3. Local HFAs
Another source, if your state HFA can’t help you, might be the National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies. Local HFAs are much like state HFAs but with jurisdictions limited to their locality. To learn whether there’s a local HFA in your area, call NALHFA at 202/367-1197.
4. FHA-approved Lenders
If you’re unable to identify a state or local HFA or other governmental agency or nonprofit to assist you, you can tap bridge-loan assistance if you work with a lender approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development to originate FHA-backed loans. HUD maintains a database of FHA lenders on its Web site that’s searchable by a number of criteria including city, state, county, and service area.
In a difference with the assistance provided by state and local agencies or nonprofits, the bridge loans provided by private, for-profit FHA-approved lenders must be structured in the form of a personal loan or line of credit collateralized by the tax credit. The bridge loan can’t be structured as a second mortgage.
Also, although FHA allows you to use the bridge loan to cover your closing costs or to buy down your interest rate, you can use it for the down payment only after you’ve covered the 3.5 percent minimum that’s required on any FHA loan. Thus, you’ll have to come up with the 3.5 percent minimum down payment yourself or else tap another source of assistance for it. That can include gifts from family. Seller-funded down-payment programs are not permitted. HUD provides complete details in a May 29 Mortgagee Letter on “Using First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credits” (2009-15) that went to its approved lenders.
Since it’s the HUD-approved lender and not FHA itself that’s making the bridge loan, actual loan terms will vary. At a minimum, though, the bridge loan must meet certain restrictions, most of them imposed to weed out fraud or ensure borrowers aren’t getting in over their heads. These include:
Start with the Deepest Assistance First
Since state HFA bridge loans are typically allowed for as much of the downpayment as possible (up to the credit limit of $8,000), your best bet is to start with the state HFA. If it doesn’t have a program in place, learn what you can from it about other state or local programs, including nonprofits. If these sources don’t pan out, you can work with an FHA-approved lender. However, since HUD requires borrowers to put down a minimum of 3.5 percent, they can access bridge-loan assistance only for other upfront expenses such as closing costs, an interest-rate buy-down, or a portion of the downpayment above 3.5 percent.
**For more information on the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, please visit my website
WASHINGTON, DC – March 25, 2009 – U.S. home prices rose 1.7 percent on a seasonally-adjusted basis from December to January, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) monthly House Price Index. In December, the FHFA first reported a 0.1 percent increase, which was later revised to a 0.2 percent decline. FHFA ( www.fhfa.gov ) regulates Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the 12 Federal Home Loan Banks as authorized by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.
For the 12 months ending in January, U.S. prices fell 6.3 percent, and the U.S. index is 9.6 percent below its April 2007 peak.
The FHFA monthly index is calculated using the purchase price of houses sold or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. For the nine Census Divisions, seasonally-adjusted monthly price changes from December to January ranged from -0.9 percent in the Pacific Division to +3.9 percent in the East North Central Division.
Month-to-month changes in the geographic mix of sales activity explain most of the unexpected rise in prices in January. Home sales disproportionately occurred in areas with the strongest markets, according to the release issued by FHFA. “While it is difficult to perfectly control for changing geographic mix in estimating house price indexes, the data suggest that if one were to remove those effects, the change in home prices in January, while still positive, would have been far less dramatic,” according to the FHFA release.
Reported sales volume, in absolute terms, was relatively low in January. As a result, the FHFA warns that relatively large revisions could occur later.
© 2009 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
U.S. mortgage applications spiked in the first full week of 2009 as record low interest rates triggered the highest demand for loan refinancing in 5-1/2 years, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Low mortgage rates, however, have yet to fuel a surge in loans for home purchases.
The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications for the week ended Jan. 9 increased 15.8% to 1,324.8. That’s the highest reading since the week ended July 11, 2003, when it reached 1,358.2.
Thirty-year mortgage rates have dropped dramatically since the Federal Reserve unveiled a plan in November to buy as much as $500 billion of mortgage securities backed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae.
The refinance share of applications increased to 85.3% from 79.8% the previous week, the highest level since the MBA started conducting its survey in 1990.
Spencer Rascoff, chief operating officer at Zillow.com, an online real estate service company based in Seattle, said loan requests to his company are up more than 200% from just two months ago, with loan requests on pace to hit about 25,000 in January and loan quotes on pace to hit 200,000.
“Many experts agree that rates will stay relatively low for at least the next few months since the federal government is now committed to buying mortgage-backed securities to keep borrowing costs low,” Rascoff said.
Here’s a sampling of interest rate drops:
30-year-fixed mortgages, averaged 4.89%, down 0.18 percentage point from the previous week, the lowest level recorded in the MBA’s survey’s history.
15-year fixed mortgage averaged 4.63%, down from 4.67% the previous week.
One-year ARMs decreased to 5.89% from 5.90%
Source: Reuters, CNNMoney.com (01/21/2009)